Updated 24th June - Covering 8th July - 30th July 2024
Southerly and south-westerly winds quite frequent, warm in the east, probably unremarkable sunshine and rainfall
Temperatures are forecast to be near normal in Northern Ireland and probably less than 1°C above normal in most other western regions, but in the east of both England and Scotland, they are expected to be 1 to 2°C warmer than normal, relative to 1991-2020.
Rainfall totals will probably not be far from normal averaged nationally, but there is expected to be a fair amount of regional variation. The most likely regions to be wetter than average are the south and south-west of Britain, while north-east Scotland looks likely to be drier than average.
Sunshine totals, averaged nationally, will probably also not be far from normal, but sunshine looks likely to be below average in most parts of Wales and south-west England, and above normal in northern and eastern Scotland, due to frequent southerly and south-westerly winds.
More Weather Forecasts & News
Week 2: Monday 8th July - Sunday 14th July
It looks probable that the cool and changeable west to north-westerly type of early July will break down early in this week, leaving a south to south-westerly type over the British Isles and high pressure to the east and north-east of Britain. This will result in occasional rain belts crossing the country from west to east, but with some long spells of predominantly dry weather with variable amounts of cloud in between, especially in eastern parts of the country. Some showery thundery outbreaks are also possible, mainly in the south. Towards the end of the week, it will tend to turn wetter as the low pressure systems out to the west start to push in from the west.
After a cool start to the week, temperatures will generally be above the seasonal average but not exceptionally so, with most places seeing low to mid-20s Celsius by day, although there are likely to be some warm muggy nights, particularly in the south-east. However, heat will be building in central parts of Europe, and so there is a chance of some of this heat briefly making it into parts of England, especially the east and south, late in the week, bringing potential for high 20s and low 30s Celsius. This is likely to be short-lived as there are signs that the east Atlantic trough will start to push eastwards towards Britain late in the week, turning the weather cooler and more unsettled.
Temperatures are thus forecast to be above the 1991-2020 long-term normal for most, probably by 1 to 2°C in most of central, southern and eastern England, and around 2°C in inland parts of East Anglia and the south-east. However, Northern Ireland and western Scotland may miss out on most of the warmth, and in these regions temperatures are forecast to be very close to the long-term normal.
Both rainfall and sunshine totals will probably not be far from normal in most parts of the UK, although there may be substantial regional variation in the rainfall totals, with potential for slow-moving bands of rain and/or thundery downpours to affect some areas of the country, while others stay predominantly dry.
Week 3: Monday 15th July - Sunday 21st July
There is quite a strong signal for pressure to be above normal to the north of Britain during this week, with the jet stream running to the south, sending low pressure systems across the British Isles at times. However, relatively high pressure to the north-east may result in southerly winds remaining relatively frequent, and there are indications that the jet stream may end up rather weak, meaning not a total washout for most of the country, with an emphasis on shallow low pressure systems.
Generally, it looks likely to become hot in central Europe and cool in the eastern North Atlantic, with Britain lying on the boundary, suggesting that temperatures will be near or slightly below average in Northern Ireland and some other western parts of Britain, but probably above normal overall in the east of both England and Scotland. One or two short hot interludes are possible chiefly for the east and south-east of England.
Again, there is not a strong signal for rainfall or sunshine amounts to deviate substantially from average for most of the country, although there may again be considerable regional variation, particularly in the rainfall. However, it looks likely that with anomalously high pressure to the north-east for a lot of the time, north-east Scotland will be drier than average. Cloudier than average weather is most likely in the south-west of Britain, while north-eastern Britain is most likely to be sunnier than average.
Rest of month: Monday 22nd July - Tuesday 30th July
Confidence is low in this week's weather with relatively limited signals: predictability is often lower at this time of the year than in the other seasons. However, it again looks probable that pressure will be above average to the east and north-east of Britain, which means that southerly winds may be more frequent than average for the time of year, bringing potential for some hot weather, perhaps greater potential for it to turn hot than earlier in the forecast period. As a result, it looks probable that temperatures will be above normal overall, but there is considerable uncertainty over the extent of the positive temperature anomaly. Again there is less of a clear signal for sunshine or rainfall anomalies, which are most likely to not be far from normal.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
