The Updated 2024 MLB Trade Deadline Big Board (2024)

Major League Baseball's 2024 trade deadline of July 30 is only eight short weeks away, and with each passing day it becomes a little clearer which teams are likely to be sellers at the deadline.

The first step in putting together a trade deadline big board is deciding which teams might actually be sellers. Rather than make those judgments on our own, let's use a couple of neutral sources: postseason odds on Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

Players on teams who entered play Monday with a less than 25 percent chance of making the playoffs, per the average of those two prognostication tools, were considered for this big board.

Notably, that does include the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Giants, Rangers and Cardinals, but does not include the Astros or the Cubs. So, if you're looking for Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger or Justin Verlander, you won't find them here. Conversely, if you're livid with the inclusion of Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, Paul Goldschmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., take it up with the playoff odds calculators.

Beyond that, there must be a reasonable expectation that the player could be traded if the team does embrace selling at the deadline.

All players hitting free agency this coming winter (and playing for teams that met the first criterion) are presumed to be on the trade block, as are the players with 1.5 years of club control remaining who play for teams that might/should be in rebuilding mode. There are also a few players included who won't become free agents until at least 2027, but who have already been discussed throughout MLB media as viable trade candidates.

Players are ranked in order of how coveted they will be if they are actually available, where what is left on the player's contract is a crucial data point to consider.

30. Harrison Bader, OF, New York Mets
2024 Stats: .270/.324/.356, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB
Contract: $10.5M 2024

The glovework alone should make Bader an intriguing target for some teams, but he's also having a more productive season at the plate than had been the case in recent years. Granted, "more productive" means a 100 OPS+ compared to 85 in 2022 and 69 last year, but he is both reaching base and stealing them at a decent clip. He could go to a contender and be a daily fixture in the 8-hole while manning the 8 (CF) in the scorebook.

29. Elias Díaz, C, Colorado Rockies
2024 Stats: .301/.349/.428, 4 HR, 24 RBI
Contract: $6M 2024

Colorado doesn't have much to offer ahead of the trade deadline, but this 2023 All-Star is a nice exception to that rule. Dating back to the beginning of 2021, Díaz has a .724 OPS that rates quite well among catchers. And it's much more than just the Coors Field bump. In fact, he entered play Monday with indistinguishable home/road splits in 2024: .301 AVG and .773 OPS at home; .300 AVG and .781 OPS on the road.

28. Trevor Williams, RHP, Washington Nationals
2024 Stats: 56.2 IP, 2.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.5 K/9
Contract: $7M 2024

One year removed from a 5.55 ERA, Williams has flipped that mark upside-down to a staggering 2.22 through his first 11 starts. The big question is: Can he continue to minimize home runs? He gave up more dingers than any other NL pitcher in 2023 (34) and more than anyone in the big leagues in 2020 (15), but just two solo dingers allowed thus far this season. If he can keep on keeping the ball in the yard, he'll be the most desirable National available.

27. J.D. Martinez, DH, New York Mets
2024 Stats: .279/.328/.484, 5 HR, 15 RBI
Contract: $12M 2024 (paid as $4.5M this season and $1.5M annually 2034-38)

The home run prowess isn't nearly what it was last year (33), let alone what it was back in 2017 when he was averaging one trot around the bases for every 11 trips to the plate. Still, Martinez remains a darn good hitter with a 136 OPS+ on par with those of Adley Rutschman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. There's no room to be found at DH for several of this season's top contenders, but there should be quite a few offers for Martinez's services next month.

26. Joc Pederson, DH, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Stats: .305/.404/.542, 7 HR, 20 RBI
Contract: $9.5M 2024, $14M mutual option for 2025 ($3M buyout)

The mutual option could complicate negotiations to some extent, bumping Pederson maybe half a dozen spots down the big board. However, the 32-year-old is having the best season of his career and needs to at least rank ahead of J.D. Martinez among the DH-only trade options. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title, Pederson would rank comfortably top 10 in the majors in OPS+ (171).

25. Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Stats: .295/.375/.533, 5 HR, 13 RBI
Contract: $5.2M 2024

He arguably isn't the best Jansen available, but he is the top catcher on the board. This Blue Jays backstop is well on his way to a fourth consecutive season slugging .470 or better. In fact, among the 56 catchers with at least 500 plate appearances since the beginning of 2021, Jansen has the highest slugging percentage at .493. Toronto has been reluctant to deploy him as a DH for some reason, but he's a potent enough hitter to fill that void for a new team.

24. Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants
2024 Stats: .280/.331/.490, 7 HR, 20 RBI
Contract: $18M 2024

At what would be a prorated salary of more than $6M if traded on deadline day, Conforto's price tag is going to be a bit too steep for some teams. Those who can afford him, however, will be intrigued by the fact that he's slugging much more like he did from 2017-20 (.495) than he did from 2021-23 (.384). He has been on the IL for three weeks with a hamstring injury, but he'll be back any day now.

23. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox
2024 Stats: .236/.343/.500, 11 HR, 17 RBI
Contract: $5.85M 2024

Like Conforto, O'Neill is currently on the IL. And with O'Neill, that's nothing new. Between 2022 and 2023, he nearly missed as many games (156) as the number he played in (168) and wasn't particularly productive when he did play (.707 OPS). At least that latter portion hasn't been true this season, as he was hitting like an MVP in April and is still leading the Red Sox in home runs despite missing nearly 20 games already. If he can get back from his knee injury in short order and keep hitting reasonably well, he'll be one of the top outfielders on the trade block.

22. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Stats: 66.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Contract: $10M 2024

Kikuchi was roughed up a bit in his two most recent starts against Detroit and Pittsburgh, causing his ERA to balloon by more than a full run. But he has done an impressive job of controlling what he can, boasting a K/BB ratio of 4.64 while allowing just 0.81 HR/9. Improving in both of those departments last season is what finally got his career ERA down below 5.00. Improving further in both departments this season should make him one of the most coveted two-month-rental starting pitchers.

21. Tommy Pham, OF, Chicago White Sox
2024 Stats: .280/.331/.402, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 3 SB
Contract: $3M 2024

Pham's batting average has dipped below .300 after an initial hot first month with the White Sox. Still, he is putting up solid numbers, he can play any of the three outfield spots, he can play every day even at 36 years old and he is dirt cheap at what would be just a shade over $1M for a two-month rental. What Chicago gets back for him won't be much, but he will be talked about a lot as a key trade candidate.

20. Tanner Scott, RHP, Miami Marlins
2024 Stats: 23.0 IP, 1.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 7 saves
Contract: $5.7M 2024

Who's ready for a run on closers with expiring contracts? Hopefully you, because we've got four in a row coming up. Scott ranks at the bottom of the quartet because of his high walk rate and the expectation that his ERA is going to eventually come crashing back to earth. (His FIP is 4.06.) He hasn't allowed an earned run since April 14, though. And while the other three closers might be available if their respective teams continue to overwhelm, it's just about a guarantee that Scott will be on the move.

19. Paul Sewald, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Stats: 8.1 IP, 1.08 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5 saves
Contract: $7.35M 2024

Sewald missed the first six weeks of the season with an oblique strain, but he has been darn near unhittable since making his debut in early May. His strikeout rate is nowhere near what it used to be, but he has seemingly mastered the art of inducing weak contact. Arizona gave up three players to get him from Seattle last summer. The Diamondbacks might be able to get a solid prospect for him.

18. Kirby Yates, RHP, Texas Rangers
2024 Stats: 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 8 saves
Contract: $4.5M 2024

Though presently a sub-.500 team, it's hard to believe the Rangers will actually be sellers at the deadline. But if the reigning champs do wave the white flag, Yates is having quite the renaissance year in his age-37 season. Back in 2019, he saved 41 games with a 1.19 ERA for the Padres, and he is surprisingly putting up similar numbers in his return to a closing gig. He did finally give up a couple runs in mid-May, but he has yet to blow a save and has only once allowed multiple hits in an appearance.

17. Kenley Jansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox
2024 Stats: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 9 saves
Contract: $16M 2024

Jansen has had the least productive season of these four closers on the trade block, but he has by far the longest track record of ninth inning experience, racking up 429 career saves—plus 20 more in the postseason. His 2024 salary is nearly as much as that of Scott, Sewald and Yates combined, but he has earned that over the past decade-plus. For what it's worth, FIP (2.37) suggests Jansen is pitching his best since 2017.

16. Erick Fedde, RHP Chicago White Sox
2024 Stats: 69.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
Contract: $7.5M 2024, $7.5M 2025

In six seasons with the Nationals, Fedde had a 5.41 ERA. But he figured something out in Korea last season, making 30 starts with a 2.00 ERA before coming back to MLB and becoming a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter. And now that two-year, $15M contract he signed with the White Sox looks like an absolute steal. He's far from the most well-established starting pitcher on the trade block, but he's going to be one of the most sought-after arms because of the combination of his early success, his modest salary and the fact that he's signed through next season.

15. Jack Flaherty, RHP, Detroit Tigers
2024 Stats: 67.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.0 K/9
Contract: $14M 2024

Over the previous four seasons, Flaherty battled both injury and control issues, looking nothing like the 23-year-old from 2019 who made 33 starts with a 2.75 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and an NL-best WHIP of 0.97. Through 11 starts in Detroit, though, he has been even better than he was a half-decade ago, averaging nine strikeouts per walk and recording nine quality starts thus far. Unless Max Scherzer and/or Justin Verlander is both healthy and available once again, Flaherty may well be the cream of this year's two-month-rental crop of starting pitchers.

14. Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Stats: .260/.357/.465, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB
Contract: $10.9M 2024

Walker hit 36 home runs in 2022 and 33 last season, and he is on pace for roughly the same in 2024. He is also a two-time reigning Gold Glove recipient at first base, so prospective trade partners would be getting more than just the established slugging here. Better yet, Walker has historically done his best work at the plate in August, batting .299 with an .878 OPS in that month. Could be some seriously immediate return on investment.

13. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
2024 Stats: 69.1 IP, 2.47 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.2 K/9
Contract: $13M 2024, $13M 2025

This was the toughest player to rank, because goodness only knows what version of Anderson you'll end up getting. He was an All-Star two years ago, ending that season with a 2.57 ERA. However, that came out of nowhere after five straight seasons north of 4.30, and it was followed by a brutal 5.43 ERA in 2023. And his current 4.56 FIP suggests the 2.47 ERA isn't long for this world. Nevertheless, he has been one of the only bright spots for the Angels, and that $13M salary for next season is a steal if he ends up being a viable No. 3 starter for a contender.

12. Chris Bassitt, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Stats: 65.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Contract: $22M 2024, $22M 2025

Bassitt's year-to-date numbers pale in comparison to what garnered him Cy Young votes in each of 2020, 2021 and 2023. But he has turned a corner after a rough start to the year, going at least five innings and allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last six starts, notably getting his walk rate under control. That $22M price tag for next season for a struggling 35-year-old would have been a hard pass on the trade block a month ago. Now, there should be plenty of interest in Bassitt if the Blue Jays embrace a rebuild.

11. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Stats: 44.1 IP, 5.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.7 K/9
Contract: $25M 2024, vesting player option of up to $25M for 2025

Montgomery has only made eight starts thus far and was reasonably solid in six of them. But he also definitely has not been as good as he was in recent years. After averaging 8.5 H/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 from 2020-23, those marks are at 11.0, 3.0 and 5.7, respectively. Fresh off helping lead the Rangers to a World Series ring, though, he should still be a coveted target for a lot of teams. But whether he turns things around over the next seven weeks will determine how high the bidding goes.

10. Sonny Gray, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
2024 Stats: 57.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 12.2 K/9
Contract: $10M 2024, $25M 2025, $35M 2026, $30M club option ($5M buyout) for 2027

Gray's back-loaded contract is going to make things interesting. St. Louis might be willing to part with the ace who has a 2.92 ERA since the beginning of 2022, but how eager will other teams be to add a pitcher who turns 35 this November and is still owed at least $65M? Might be similar to last summer's Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades, in which the strength of the prospect haul will hinge on how much of that future payroll the Cardinals are willing to retain. As things currently stand, though, St. Louis would be the No. 6 seed in the NL bracket, so this team is a far cry from selling.

9. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
2024 Stats: .233/.304/.405, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB
Contract: $18M 2024, $17M player option for 2025 ($2M buyout), $18M player option for 2026 ($3M buyout), $18M mutual option for 2027 ($1M buyout)

That's a lot of contract terms, but the long and short of it is there's a good chance Chapman will opt out and become a free agent after this season. All the same, any team trying to trade for him needs to be prepared to pay him $38M over the next two seasons if he doesn't decline. His glove at third base is worth it, though. And his slugging percentage would benefit from a change of scenery, as seven of his eight home runs have come on the road.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
2024 Stats: .221/.302/.355, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 3 SB
Contract: $26M 2024

Goldy's year-to-date numbers look nothing like what he consistently put up from 2013-22. However, he has rallied from a rough start, posting an .896 OPS over his last 18 games compared to an abysmal .530 mark through his first 37. His return to prominence has been perhaps the biggest reason the Cardinals have rallied from their 15-24 start to the season. If the trade deadline was today, there's no chance they'd be trading him away. But with Baseball Reference inexplicably only giving St. Louis a 4.3 percent chance of making the postseason, got to at least put him on the list.

7. Max Scherzer, RHP, Texas Rangers
2024 Stats: Has not yet pitched
Contract: $22.5M 2024 (plus $30.8M retained by Mets)

The odds of Scherzer actually getting traded are slim. Not only would the Rangers need to fall out of contention, but he would need to get back on the mound and prove that he can be a part of a championship push. However, he was one of the biggest pieces moved ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, and again this past summer. Maybe he hits the trade block again and gets a third World Series ring.

6. Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants
2024 Stats: 23.2 IP, 9.51 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 11.8 K/9
Contract: $15M 2024, $30M player option for 2025 (plus a $17M signing bonus paid January 2026, $15M of 2025 salary deferred to 2027)

Between the convoluted contract that he's likely to opt out of this winter, the dreadful start to the year and the adductor and groin injuries already suffered this season, the reigning NL Cy Young recipient might be just about untradeable. But if Snell gets healthy and starts to pitch in July as well as he did for most of 2023, surely there would be a few extremely interested parties.

5. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
2024 Stats: .239/.313/.473, 13 HR, 30 RBI
Contract: $20.5M 2024

Alonso is the crown jewel of this year's crop of impending free agents, and he sure is looking likely to be on the move with the Mets now 11 games below .500. He isn't operating at quite his usual home run pace, but he still has the highest 2024 slugging percentage of any player on this big board and a mighty fine track record of mashing baseballs with 205 home runs since the beginning of 2019.

4. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Stats: .236/.284/.343, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 4 SB
Contract: $11M 2024, $16.5M 2025

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said on Sunday "it just doesn't make any sense" to trade away Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But we will continue to assume it's a possibility until Toronto finds its way back into the playoff picture.

Bichette entered 2024 as a career .299 hitter who led the AL in hits in each of 2021 and 2022. He had at least 20 home runs and 30 doubles in each of the past three seasons, receiving some AL MVP votes in each year. And after an uncharacteristically poor start to the year, he sprang to life from May 10-29, batting .361 with seven extra-base hits.

3. Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
2024 Stats: 51.2 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Contract: $5.5M 2024, arbitration-eligible in 2025 and 2026

There has been speculation about Luzardo as a trade candidate dating back to December, and The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal stoked those flames in a big way last week in saying that Luzardo is "the single most likely player to be traded."

Since the beginning of 2022, Luzardo has a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. Couple those solid numbers with two years of arbitration eligibility still to come and Miami should be able to get quite the package of prospects for this lefty. Seattle gave up a ton for 1.5 years of Luis Castillo two summers ago, and his numbers in the three seasons before being dealt (3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.2 K/9) sure are comparable to what Luzardo has been up to lately.

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Stats: .291/.388/.404, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 2 SB
Contract: $19.9M 2024, arbitration-eligible in 2025

Let's be sure to reiterate that Toronto has said it does not plan on trading away Guerrero or Bo Bichette. But that isn't going to stop the rumors and speculations from swirling here. If the Blue Jays still have a sub-.500 record in eight weeks, they might be willing to part with the three-time All-Star who they have been unable to ink to a long-term deal.

It took a little more than a month for Guerrero to get into a groove, but he is batting .376 over his last 24 games. We're still waiting on the home runs to come, though, as he is on pace to finish the year with just 14. Even so, he is undeniably one of the top names that might be on the trade block.

1. Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox
2024 Stats: .214/.241/.500, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB
Contract: $12.5M 2024, $15M 2025, $20M club option for 2026 ($2M buyout), $20m club option for 2027 ($2M buyout)

Robert has missed two months with a hip injury, but he should be back in Chicago's lineup on Tuesday. And when healthy, he has been one of the best in the business, boasting a career slugging percentage (.500) on par with those of José Ramírez (.502) and Austin Riley (.499). He also has plus range in center field and is under team control for another three seasons after this one. If Chicago is actually willing to give him up, he should fetch a king's ransom.